This year saw the restarting of Express Entry draws for the first time since 2020. What determines the cutoffs for CRS, and what could past scores provide clues regarding the coming years?
This July saw the return of the Express Entry system for the Federal Skilled Worker Class, in which Canada admitted skilled immigrants from abroad to join the country for the first time in the year 2020.
Three programs are managed through Express Entry.
Express Entry system:
The Federal Skilled Workers Program (FSWP);
The Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP); and
The Canadian Experience Class (CEC).
Candidates who are part of that Express Entry pool receive an invitation to apply (ITAs) based on the CRS. (CRS).
Every two weeks, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issues ITAs to those from the Express Entry pool who have met the criteria set by CRS. This year all Express Entry draws have been general, selecting candidates from both the FSWP and the CEC.
CRS in 2022
On July 6th IRCC restarted the Express Entry draw, inviting 1,500 hopefuls to the Express Entry pool with an average CRS score of or above 557.
As draws continued to be drawn throughout this year, IRCC could increase the draw size (eventually to 4,750 potential candidates in the latest draw) and reduce CRS cutoffs, which were lower than 500.
As Canada continues to confront post-COVID challenges, labour shortages remain incredibly high. Canada has recognized immigration as its primary method for addressing the urgent needs of its economy, the main reason behind Express Entry’s return and the decreasing CRS score in 2022.
Are we able to use past scores to determine the CRS’s future?
At first, it could appear quite simple to determine future CRS scores by analyzing cutoffs from the past. As draws increase as time goes by the cutoffs of CRS continue to decrease. But, the situation is more complex.
The issue with using past CRS scores to predict future scores is the absence of a distinct pattern of how cutoffs for CRS change. The chart below maps CRS cutoffs to their respective draw. While we can detect negative correlations, we cannot accurately calculate future CRS scores in this graph since there isn’t an unavoidable decrease in cutoffs across draws.
Note that this Trend line (yellow) is different from the gradient of the total score (white). This is due to the irregular declines in the CRS (i.e. between July 6th and July 20th, the CRS dropped 15 points, but between November 9th and the 23rd CRS cutoff, it only lost by 3 points). Predicting CRS scores for the coming year would be easier if these declines were constant.
Further analysis of statistics indicates an average deviation of (the amount that scores differ from the average) in the Express Entry CRS cutoffs in 2022 was 21.6 points. As anyone who has applied to an Express Entry pool can attest, this is a significant possibility of prediction error.
Another reason why there are better methods of predicting CRS is due to specific policy decisions that impact cutoff scores.
What factors affect the cutoff score for CRS?
The first and most crucial point is that IRCC controls the cutoffs for applied CRS. This means that the department is free to adhere to trends or patterns and instead has the discretion to decide on CRS cutoffs and to invite immigrants based on Canada’s specific financial requirements.
The most striking example occurred in February 2021, when IRCC allowed 27,000 new applicants to CEC. CEC, with a CRS cutoff of only 75–the lowest in the history of Express Entry.
The other thing to consider is the increase in the cutoffs for CRS scores due to specific types of applications already being felt. For instance, applicants in the Express Entry pool with an enhanced provincial nomination through the regional nominating program (PNP) can receive up to 600 more CRS points based on your provincial nominee.
In the same way, applicants to the CEC usually have both Canadian education as well as Canadian work experience. These two elements significantly increase CRS scores, which can make cutoffs more skewed for the entire express Entry pool.
CRS’s future
While we’re not sure what the upcoming CRS cutting-offs would be like, there’s a crucial policy change set to take place in 2023 that will significantly change CRS’s effect regarding immigration. The bill is known as C-19.
The bill was approved in June of 2022. This bill gives the immigration minister the ability to establish groups (based on policy objectives) inside the Express Entry pool and issue ITAs to those who are part of the group.
IRCC has already stated its desire to pursue this initiative in 2023 to address immediate economic growth demands by focusing on specific job fields in high demand.
In Canada’s Migration Levels Plan, the nation hopes to receive 203,220 immigrants enrolled in the Express Entry program between 2023 and 2025.
