Analysis Review of the record-breaking year of Express Entry and a look ahead.
The last date that Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) applicants were chosen out of the Express Entry pool was December 23, 2020.
Most of us did not have any idea at the time that it would be the start of a brief pause on Express Entry invitations to FSWP applicants.
The FSWP has been Canada’s most widely used option for immigrants of the lower class since its inception back in 1967. The year 2008 saw Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) added to the FSWP in The Canadian Experience Class (CEC). The CEC aims to offer a specific immigration route for Canadian working experience (namely students from abroad and temporarily employed foreigners). Since 2013, IRCC announced an initiative called the Federal Skills Training Program (FSTP) to offer an immigration path for workers with a high level of skill.
In 2015, IRCC launched Express Entry to manage three of these programs. Anyone who met the requirements for an express entry-managed program could make a profile and be given a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score determined by human capital factors like educational level, age, English or French language proficiency, as well as work experience and Canadian experience, and many other things. Every two weeks, IRCC invited the most successful applicants in the program to apply to become Canadian permanent residency.
The motivation behind Express Entry was it would permit IRCC to review applications quicker (since they only had to consider those that were invited instead of the traditional model of reviewing each application) and give prospective immigrants a better chance to make it to Canadian society. Canadian economic system (since IRCC was skimming the most popular applicants to invite the top scorers).
Between 2015 and the onset of the pandemic, FSWP applicants were among the top beneficiaries of Express Entry invitations. They received about 45 percent of invitations, and CEC candidates were following them. All of this ended in 2021.
IRCC started 2021 with a strategy on achieving its Immigration Levels Plan target of getting 401,000 permanent residents by the end of the year. The plan involved transferring more temporary residents who resided within Canada during the pandemic into permanent residency. The reason for this plan was that amid COVID issues such as restrictions on travel and other obstacles which could get impeding the process of foreign applicants who are completing the permanent residence application, the transition of residents within Canada is the most reliable way to reach the goal of 401,000 newcomers in 2021.
The strategy involved shifting away from looking at all applicants in Express Entry to primarily inviting CEC candidates throughout this year, except the historic draw on February 13, which included the entire 27,332 CEC candidates at the moment (almost six times the previous record of invitations to be invited in just one draw). The plan also included an all-time public policy that allows up to 90,000 essential workers and international graduates within Canada in Canada to submit applications for permanent residency.
The public is free to debate the advantages of excluding FSWP applicants of Express Entry draws for one year and beyond. We’ll be able to discuss the merits of this decision as various events unfold, including the global pandemic situation, the IRCC’s future policy decision-making and operating capacity, Canada’s employment market, and the integration of economics for Express Entry immigrants. In all, it will take a few several years before we can fully evaluate the implications of this ruling.
However, it’s worthwhile to consider the pros and cons of this decision based on the facts that we have at the moment.
The pros of the decision to not include FSWP candidates
IRCC is meeting its goal for newcomers for the current year, as it is currently attracting more than four thousand new residents each month and has already landed more than 360,000 new immigrants in the first 11 months of the year 2021. Therefore, IRCC will argue the difficult decision not to accept FSWP applicants has allowed it to obtain more permanent residency in a demanding operating environment.
Another advantage of one of the benefits is that Statistics Canada research shows that those who have Canadian working experience are more likely to be well-integrated into the labor market after being granted permanent residence. Apart from having experience in the domestic workplace, they can also develop their language skills and network when staying in Canada in a temporary place. This aids them in their job search after settling.
The third reason is that Canada experienced labor shortages all through the pandemic. The IRCC’s attention to candidates from Canada has enabled Canada to take more specific strategies for combating deficiencies, especially in essential professions. In particular, many of the crucial applicants under the IRCC’s temporary government policy could not have been eligible to receive permanent residency had it not been for the IRCC’s decision not to accept FSWP applicants this year.
The negatives of this decision to not include FSWP candidates
However, it is possible to argue that IRCC could meet the 401,000 targets for newcomers and invite FSWP candidates simultaneously. This is because there’s a delay of approximately one year between the moment an FSWP candidate is asked and when they arrive in Canada. This means that IRCC could have started to send Express Entry invitations to FSWP applicants in the second quarter of the year. However, it would also attract as many Canadian applicants as possible to meet the 2021 levels goal. An internal IRCC memo suggests that the possibility was that the department was considering it. However, it’s not clear why they didn’t pursue this route.
Looking ahead
Due to the absence of communication from IRCC regarding the Express Entry plans, it isn’t easy to know when it will reopen invitations to FSWP applicants. There are, however, many points to be aware of.
In the beginning, IRCC was also not allowing CEC candidates to draw since September to reduce its backlog. The department has stated that it plans to cut Express Entry backlogs in half before it is considering inviting FSWP, CEC, and Federal Skilled Trades Program candidates again. Based on its current speed of processing applications, IRCC could be in that position in the first quarter of 2022.
In the future, IRCC will need to invite back FSWP applicants due to the prominence of a source of talent FSWP candidates are. They comprised 45 percent of candidates invited in the year 2019 and have made up around 85 percent of applicants from this pool of Express Entry candidates in the last few months. Shortly, IRCC may run out of CEC potential candidates and might have reached the point of no return.
Another essential aspect to consider is that IRCC is a significant factor in helping boost Canada’s economy. The department assists in the arrival of permanent residents from overseas that help to strengthen Canada’s population, workforce, and economic expansion. But the pandemic has slowed the flow of immigrants from abroad and has caused Canada to experience the lowest growth in the past 100 years. Additionally, the country has many of the highest job vacancies ever recorded for various reasons, including the absence of immigrants. So, resuming FSWP draws is essential for assisting Canada’s growth goals.
Additionally, although it made sense not to exclude FSWP candidates from draws when Canada has stricter travel restrictions, it is now more sensitive to not be excluded from ties since Canada lifted travel restrictions to confirm Permanent Residence (COPR) Holders at the end of June. Although the COVID case is on the rise worldwide, nothing stands that could be done to Canadian government travel restrictions at present, hindering FSWP candidates who have COPRs from gaining entry to Canada. As previously stated that it can take one year on average from the point an FSWP is invited to be admitted to Canada and, therefore, the possibility of pandemic instability shouldn’t be the primary reason to keep off on FSWP invitations, as nobody knows what the world will have to offer us in the next year or more.
This is to say that there is an argument to support IRCC to reinstate invitations to FSWP applicants in 2022.
