Canada’s population growth is slowing down, primarily due to a drop in temporary residents like international students and foreign workers. The country’s total population has now reached 41.5 million people. However, after a rapid rise in population during the first two quarters of 2024, the rate of increase slowed considerably for the rest of the year. Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) introduced policies aimed at reducing temporary residents, which have started to show measurable results.
Population Growth Trends
Canada’s population saw sharp increases in early 2024, largely driven by temporary residents such as work permit holders, international students, and asylum seekers. Yet, this pace could not be sustained. By January 1, 2025, the country had a total of 3.02 million temporary residents—a rise of 291,165 people over the year. However, this was a much smaller increase compared to previous years.
In the last quarter of 2024, from October 1 to January 1, 2025, about 28,341 temporary residents left Canada. This slowdown in growth contributed to a smaller overall population increase of 744,324 people in 2024, which, while significant, was less than the gains seen in 2022 and 2023. Canada’s immigration policies aim to better align population growth with available housing and resources.
Declining Temporary Resident Numbers
The number of study permit and work permit holders dropped in late 2024. During this period, 32,643 fewer international students and 18,435 fewer foreign workers remained in Canada. On the other hand, asylum seekers and protected persons increased by 25,774, bringing this group to a record high of 457,285 people in 2024.
Provincial Population Changes
Canada’s population trends vary by region. In three of the Atlantic provinces—Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia—the population decreased slightly due to temporary residents leaving. Newfoundland lost 301 temporary residents, while Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia saw small declines of 21 and 50 temporary residents, respectively. However, New Brunswick maintained its population.
In contrast, the prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba recorded modest population growth. Alberta’s population grew by 0.6%, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba both saw increases of 0.3%. The northern territories—Yukon, Nunavut, and the Northwest Territories—also experienced small population increases.
IRCC Policies and Their Impact
In December 2023, the IRCC introduced several policy changes to manage temporary resident numbers. These measures were designed to address concerns about housing shortages and affordability by slowing population growth. Temporary residents, also known as Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs), account for a significant portion of Canada’s population increase.
The IRCC announced that 98% of Canada’s population growth in recent years was due to immigration, with NPRs making up 60% of that increase. To control this trend, the government implemented stricter policies targeting international students and temporary foreign workers. Key measures include:
- Temporary Resident Caps: For the first time, Canada set limits on the number of temporary residents allowed each year.
- Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Changes: New eligibility criteria were introduced, such as field of study and language requirements.
- Higher Financial Support Requirements: International students now need to demonstrate greater financial stability to obtain study permits.
- Study Permit Application Cap: A cap was placed on the number of study permit applications accepted annually.
- Tighter Spousal Open Work Permit (SOWP) Rules: Eligibility criteria were tightened for family members seeking work permits.
- Freeze on Low-Wage LMIAs: Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for low-wage jobs were paused in areas with high unemployment (6% or more).
- Increased Wages for High-Wage Streams: Employers hiring through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) must now meet higher wage requirements.
- Stricter Intra-Company Transfer Rules: Companies transferring employees to Canada face tougher regulations.
- Higher Entry Requirements for Mexican Nationals: Mexican nationals now face additional entry requirements.
Immigration’s Role in Canada’s Economy
Immigration plays a critical role in Canada’s demographic and economic health. Like many Western nations, Canada faces two major challenges—an aging population and a low birth rate. Without immigration, the country would struggle to sustain population growth and meet labor market needs.
Many Canadian workers retire every year, which reduces the taxable income base while increasing pension and healthcare costs. Immigration helps balance this by bringing in younger, working-age people who contribute to the economy and support essential services. Immigration accounts for nearly all labor market growth, especially in sectors with persistent worker shortages, such as healthcare, construction, and technology.
Former Immigration Minister Marc Miller emphasized the importance of immigration at the launch of Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan. He highlighted that newcomers helped prevent a recession following the COVID-19 pandemic and continue to drive economic growth.
Slowing Population Growth: What’s Next?
As IRCC policies take effect, Canada’s temporary resident population is likely to stabilize or decline in the coming years. This may ease pressure on housing and infrastructure but could also impact industries reliant on temporary foreign workers and international students. Policymakers will need to strike a balance between managing population growth and ensuring that Canada’s labor market and economy remain strong.
